NESP Marine and Coastal Hub (2024). Modelling shorebird migration to assess disease risk amid global change. Project 4.26 Information sheet. Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Cairns, Queensland.
Overview
High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) has become a growing threat to livestock, wildlife, and humans since the end of the last millennium. Migratory shorebirds are considered the main carriers of avian influenza viruses into Australia. To manage current and future HPAI risks, ongoing monitoring of these shorebirds’ movements along HPAI hotspots in the East-Asian Australasian Flyway (EAAF) is essential.
Assessing the risk of HPAI incursion into Australia is complex. Migratory shorebirds face challenges from climate change and habitat loss within the flyway, affecting their migration patterns and distribution. These influences are not yet well understood, which complicates our ability to predict their exposure to and dispersal of HPAI. Monitoring HPAI hotspots along the EAAF should, therefore, consider both shorebirds’ current migration routes and the future impact of global changes on their migratory behaviour.
A detailed understanding of migratory timing and connectivity of Australian shorebird populations along the flyway is vital to predicting and mitigating disease incursion risks. This knowledge helps pinpoint critical periods and the geographic pathways through which HPAI may spread and reach Australia. Moreover, understanding how migration timing and routes adapt to global change is critical for the conservation of shorebirds, a group that has experienced severe declines in recent decades.
